Albany Office Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 230413
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1213 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will be ending overnight from west to east
as a cold front passes through the region.  Behind this front,
cooler and less humid air will move into the region for Wednesday
with a partly to mostly sunny sky. Mainly dry and comfortable
weather is expected for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1213 AM EDT...Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been allowed
to expire across the region.

Surface cold front is now located over the Finger Lakes region
of west central New York and it continues to track eastward
towards our area. Ahead of the boundary, MRMS imagery continues
to show two bands of convection. The band just ahead of the
frontal boundary is a weakening and broken band of light rain
showers. 3-km HRRR suggest this activity will continue to weaken
as it tracks eastward towards our area. Will continue slight
chc for showers over the next few hours for far western areas,
but this will likely continue to diminish over the next few
hours and shouldn`t be much of an issue for us overnight.

Meanwhile, the heavier band of showers and embedded thunderstorms
along the pre-frontal trough is now mainly located over central
and eastern New England. Any lingering showers/thunderstorms on
the backside of this band across the mid-Hudson Valley,
Taconics and western New England should be exiting within the
next hour to the east. Until then, locally heavy downpours will
be possible with any of this activity, but it should continue
to quickly head eastward soon, ending the threat for heavy
rainfall in our area. There had been some minor flooding across
parts of western New England due to this rainfall, but water
should be receding soon.

The front should cross the area by late tonight, but any
notable cooling or drier air moving into the area probably won`t
occur until during the day Wednesday. Skies should start to
clear out by late tonight with the passage of the front. With
the frontal passage not occurring until very late, it will still
feel rather sticky and mild overnight, with lows in the 60s for
most locations. Some patches of fog will likely develop late in
the overnight, especially in areas that saw heavier rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Behind the front, cooler and less humid air will work into the
region. Mainly dry weather is expected through Wednesday,
although cannot totally rule out a lingering rain shower across
the Adirondacks or Mohawk Valley for later Wednesday into
Wednesday night, as the passing upper level trough picks up
some moisture off Lake Ontario and allows for a lake-enhanced
shower or two. Highs on Wednesday will reach the mid 70s to low
80s. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 50s, with some 40s
across the higher elevations. Sky cover will generally be partly
cloudy.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Extended period of fair weather with slightly below normal
temperatures.

Canadian high pressure at the surface will build in and shift
southward as it expands across the Great Lakes region and the
Northeast over the weekend into early next week. An upper level
trough will remain over region.

Short waves are expected to rotate through the trough on Thursday
and Friday. Some afternoon showers possible each day from sun`s
heating and cold air/troughiness aloft, mainly over higher terrain.

Looking at temperatures around 5 degrees below normal with highs
generally in the mid 60s to upper 70s and lows in mid 40s to mid
50s. Cooler readings are expected across the higher terrain of the
western Adirondacks, eastern Catskills and southern Green Mountains
of Vermont.

In addition to the cooler temperatures, we will have low humidity
levels with dew points in the 40s and lower/mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Line of showers and some strong thunderstorms currently extends from
the Lake George area to KGFL southwest to the Catskills. We expect
this line to continue to move southeast this evening and bring
thunderstorms to all the TAF sites between 23/00Z and 23/05Z.
Some fog may develop after midnight with the moist ground and
rain cooled atmosphere. At this time, expecting only MVFR fog
as winds and drying behind the cold front should be strong
enough to keep dense fog from forming.

Frontal passage is expected between 06Z and 12Z Wednesday with
the winds shifting from southwest to the northwest behind the
front. Winds Wednesday will be mainly from the northwest at 5 to
15 kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday-Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Most areas should see a wetting rainfall this afternoon and
evening due to the passage of a pre-frontal trough and surface
cold frontal boundary. Southerly winds will be 15 to 20 mph
today with gusts up to 30 mph, and will switch to the west by
tonight at 5 to 15 mph.

Behind the front, cooler and less humid conditions will be in
place for the rest of the week. RH values look to fall to 45 to
55 percent on Wednesday afternoon with westerly winds of 10 to
20 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will cross through the
area this afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorm will be
capable of producing locally heavy downpours and could lead to
isolated flash flooding. The locally heavy rainfall may also
result in minor flooding of urban, poor drainage and low lying
areas. Behind this frontal system, mainly dry weather is
expected for the rest of the week.

Basin average rainfall on Tuesday will generally be around a
half of an inch to an inch, although point totals may be
higher. This rainfall will only allow for minor rises on rivers
and streams. River and stream levels should quickly recede by
Wednesday and then remain steady for the rest of the week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KENX radar will likely be down through at least Friday,
September 1st for the bull gear replacement. We are waiting for
a ROC maintenance team and parts to arrive to assist local
technicians with the repairs.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis/JVM
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...JVM
HYDROLOGY...JVM
EQUIPMENT...

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion