Albany Office Forecast Discussion

191
FXUS61 KALY 202033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
433 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Dangerous heat and oppressive humidity will continue
this afternoon through Sunday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are possible during the afternoon and evening hours this weekend. A
cold front will move across the region on Sunday night into Monday,
with a return to seasonable temperatures and lower humidity levels
to begin the work week. A widespread rainfall is possible Monday
night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Dangerous and oppressive heat will continue through the weekend
with Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings in place.

As of 430 PM...A couple showers and pulse thunderstorms have
been progressing through the region over the past couple hours
with temperatures in the upper 80s to middle 90s and dew points
in the 70s. Observed heat indices range from the mid 90s to
around 105 degrees. This dangerous heat is expected to continue
for much of the region through tonight, with heat indices only
dropping into the middle 70s to upper 80s.

Skies are partly cloudy to mostly sunny with a shallow cumulus
field extending across the region. Similar cloud cover should
continue overnight with the cumulus clouds dissipating. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible through late this evening
with ample instability in place. Guidance suggests potential
for storms to develop off a lake breeze and translate eastward
towards the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, and Mid-Hudson
Valley this evening but confidence is very low on this solution
due the large number of solutions suggested by the CAMs. In
addition to a lack of forcing, very minimal shear is in place so
organized convection is not expected, but, any storms that do
develop will have potential to produce torrential rain and gusty
winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Dangerous and oppressive heat will continue through the weekend
with Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings in place.

Sunday will be very similar to Saturday except with slightly
"cooler" temperatures. Conditions will still be muggy with
oppressive heat though so be sure to stay hydrated and avoid
strenuous outdoor activity. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms
will be possible again, and will be very isolated. Sunday night
into Monday morning should be mostly dry, but a cold front will
be pushing through the region. This cold front will bring a
return to seasonable temperatures and less humid conditions as
we start the work week. The surface cold front looks to stall
just to the southeast of the region on Monday as an upper level
trough digs into the region. This trough is expected to go from
positive tilt to neutral or even negative tilt as we progress
through Tuesday. This will result in weak cyclogenesis along the
quasi-stationary cold front and moisture tracking into the
Northeast CONUS. Guidance suggest varying solutions with respect
to the position of the surface boundary and the track of the
low, meaning that the amount of precipitation that eastern NY
and western New England receives is still uncertain. It is safe
to say though that eastern zones will have a better chance at
higher precipitation amounts. Right now storms total rainfall
amounts look to range from 0.5 - 1.25 inches. Much of the region
has been dry though, so some rain will be beneficial. High
temperatures Monday and Tuesday will generally be in the 70s,
with overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Those seeking relief from the heat and humidity will be happy to
hear the long term period will feature a few days with lower
temperatures in the 70s before temperatures climb back into the 80s
towards the upcoming weekend. In addition, it will be rather dry as
upper level forcing remains weak. Read on for details.

The period begins Tuesday night with our low pressure system and
cold front from early in the week exiting well to our south and
east. Northwest flow in its wake will usher in cooler and less humid
conditions with a secondary cold front making its way through by 12z
Wednesday. Temperatures should cool into the 50s by Wednesday
morning with even some 40s popping up in the Adirondacks thanks
clearing skies overnight. While our upper level trough axis will
move overhead on Wednesday, 700mb moisture appears lackluster on all
members of the latest 12z/20 global guidance. Thus, we continued to
mention only slight chance POPS for area mainly north of I-90 on
Wednesday to account for some isolated diurnally/differential
heating driven showers. The cooler air mass in place explains why
instability looks weak so we omitted any chance for thunder at this
time. Otherwise, Wednesday should be very pleasant day with
comfortable in the 70s (60s in the higher terrain of the
Adirondacks, Greens, and Catskills) along with low dew points in the
50s.

High pressure from the Great Lakes then slides eastward heading into
Wednesday. Increasing subsidence should lead to clear skies
overnight and a good opportunity for radiational cooling. We
therefore leaned on the cooler end of guidance for Wednesday night
temperatures and show widespread lows in the low to mid 50s with
more 40s in the higher terrain of the Adirondacks, Greens, and
Catskills. High pressure in place on Thursday should give us another
pleasant day but guidance continues to hint at a weak warm front and
weak trough from the upper Great Lakes moving eastward so we show
slight chance POPS for areas north/west of the Adirondacks.
Otherwise, temperatures should end up a bit warmer than Wednesday,
rising into the low 80s in the Hudson Valley and 70s elsewhere as we
remain on the northern periphery of our surface high and upper level
flow shifts westward. Dew points again remain low.

Surface high shifts a bit east on Friday, allowing return west-
southwest flow to prevail over eastern NY/western New England which
should allow high temperatures to rise into the upper 70s to mid 80s
and dew points to climb back towards 60s. Again weak troughing at
500mb keeps slight chance POPs in the forecast (mainly for areas
above 500 feet) and with a warmer/more humid air mass in place, we
included the potential thunder.

Temperatures continue climb on Saturday as a trough digging into SE
Canada pushes our surface high further east and southwest flow
prevails within the warm sector. Thus, we expect more widespread 80s
across the region for highs. Although forcing again looks minimal,
we continue to show slight chance POPs to account for differential
heating or lake breeze boundaries that may spark isolated
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A very humid air mass will continue to be over the region
through Sunday. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible
late this afternoon into tonight.

VFR conditions will mainly occur prior to 06Z/SUN. Scattered to
broken cirrus and scattered to broken cumulus will continue
this afternoon. Some high MVFR stratus near KPSF will continue
to dissipate in the muggy air mass early this pm. The best
chance of a SHRA/TSRA will be near KGFL between 22Z to 01Z/SUN.
Some MVFR or IFR conditions may occur there. A VCSH group was
used near KALB/KPSF until confidence increases. KPOU will
continue to have VFR conditions into tonight.

Some MVFR stratus and mist/haze may form tonight at all the
sites, especially where any convection occurs. Some brief lapses
to IFR are also possible at KPSF/KGFL. The stratus should burn
off between 13Z-15Z/SUN with a few-scattered cumulus or cirrus
around.

The winds will be south to west at 6-12 kts, and then shift to
the southwest or west at 6 kts or less tonight. Gusts to 30 kts
or so are possible with any thunderstorms. Southwest to west
winds will increase to around 10 kts late tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dangerous heat and oppressive humidity will continue
this afternoon through Sunday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are possible during the afternoon and evening hours this weekend. A
cold front will move across the region on Sunday night into Monday,
with a return to seasonable temperatures and lower humidity levels
to begin the work week. A widespread rainfall is possible Monday
night into Tuesday.

No critical fire weather conditions are expected through the
entire forecast period. Minimum Relative Humidity values will
generally stay above 50% for the entire forecast period with RH
values approaching 95% during the overnight hours. Generally
light south to southwest flow will persist this weekend with a
turn to west and northwest Sunday, then north/northwest winds on
Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible today and
Sunday with more widespread precipitation possible Monday night
through Tuesday. Torrential downpours will be possible with any
thunderstorms that develop. There is a slight chance for
excessive rainfall and localized flooding in showers and
thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday. No significant hydrologic
impacts are expected through the forecast period at this time.

Please visit our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ web
page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and
forecasts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures...

July 20th...
Albany: 97 degrees 1991
Glens Falls: 97 degrees 1946
Poughkeepsie: 102 degrees 1991

Record high minimum temperatures and high temperatures...

July 21st...
Albany: 76 degrees 2011 and 101 degrees 1930
Glens Falls: 72 degrees 2011 and 96 degrees 2011
Poughkeepsie: 73 degrees 2011 and 101 degrees 1977

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ043-047-051-054-058-
     061-063.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ038>041-048>050-052-053-059-060-083-084.
     Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
     NYZ041-048>050-052-053-059-060-083-084.
     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ064>066.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ032-033-042-
     082.
MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Cebulko
NEAR TERM...Cebulko
SHORT TERM...Cebulko
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...Cebulko
HYDROLOGY...Cebulko
CLIMATE...WFO ALBANY

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion