Albany Office Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS61 KALY 030143 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 943 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure overhead will bring a stretch of warm and dry weather through much of this week. A return to cooler and unsettled weather arrives by next weekend as a low pressure system and cold front cross the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... .Update...As of 9:45 PM EDT...Calm, quiet night with tranquil weather continues. Temperatures are mainly in the 50s now, with some of the areas that typically radiate well already in the low 50s, which is just a couple degrees below the previous forecast. While we may see a few more clouds across the ADKs towards morning with approaching mid-level warm advection, satellite imagery upstream is not showing many clouds, so it looks like temperatures should continue to drop to their respective dew points within the next few to several hours, resulting in patchy fog tonight. Mainly just refreshments to previous temp/dew point/sky grids to reflect current trends with this update. Previous forecast remains in good shape with a few more details below... ..Previous...Ridging aloft and a 1022 mb surface high located over the region are leading to clear skies and calm winds this evening. Other than a few mid-level clouds across the ADKs and upper Hudson Valley associated with warm advection towards sunrise, mainly clear skies and calm winds are expected through the night. Will note that locally dense fog in some of the typically favored river valley areas is possible late tonight towards sunrise. Low temperatures should drop into the upper 40s to low 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The stretch of dry weather and above normal temperatures continues Tuesday through Thursday as large scale ridging with 500hPa heights near 585-590dam from the Central CONUS slides overhead and eventually into the western Atlantic. 850hPa isotherms rise to +16 to +18C with boundary mixing reach up to ~900hPa. This will support temperatures warming 15-20+ degrees above normal and even challenging daily records highs at our climate sites Tuesday and Wednesday as many climb into the low to even mid-80s. See our climate section of our AFD for details. Dew points will also be on the climb, reaching into the upper 50s to low 60s as sfc winds shifts to the southwest. This will make it feel even warmer. A ~1030hPa sfc high pressure builds into the Canadian Maritimes by Thursday, resulting in a southeast flow off the Atlantic for much of the Northeast. This should cool temperatures down a bit compared to Tuesday/Wednesday but still remain above normal with highs in the mid to upper 70s, perhaps approaching near 80 in the Hudson Valley, depending on boundary layer mixing. Otherwise, overnight lows will cool into the 50s to low 60s both nights thanks to clear skies supporting radiational cooling. Patchy fog and/or low stratus may develop each morning Tuesday through Wednesday morning as temperatures cool towards their respective dew points. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The main focus of the long term period remains on an incoming amplified shortwave trough from the Midwest which guidance shows potentially becoming negatively tilted and even possibly closing off as it pushes through the Northeast. There still are some timing discrepancies with this feature among the latest guidance which is likely tied to the upstream strong ridging in the western Atlantic and potential phasing between shortwaves. These types of set-ups typically slow down as the event nears, especially if this transitions into a cut-off low, so we delayed likely POPs until Saturday into Saturday evening. With strong southerly winds ahead of the incoming shortwave trough and a rather tight moisture/thermal gradient and low-level convergence along the incoming sfc cold front, enough instability could be generated to support some thunderstorms. We therefore included slight chance thunder for this period. Strong height falls ahead of the incoming trough, especially if it becomes negatively tilted, look to also be in place to support periods of moderate to potentially even heavy rain ahead of and as the cold front arrives; however, this looks to be a rather progressive front so that any flooding should be localized. WPC does highlight our area in its Day 5 ERO with a marginal risk so we we will continue to monitor the potential for any flooding. Behind the front,a noticeable cool down occurs as a much cooler air mass sweeps across the Northeast. This will lead to a period of autumn-like temperatures for Sunday and especially Monday along with breezy conditions and some wrap around showers as moist, cyclonic flow continues in the wake of the front. Breezy westerly winds advecting much cooler air over the still warm Lake Ontario waters may induce some lake enhanced rain showers so we lingered chance POPs into Sunday and even Monday. Overnight temperatures could also drop into the 30s, especially in the hill down and higher terrain, leading to unfavorable conditions for sensitive, outdoor vegetation during the overnight periods at the start of the new work week. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Wednesday...conditions are currently VFR at all terminals but we are expecting areas of radiational valley fog or mist to develop tonight. Have included LIFR at KGFL in both vsby/cigs. At ALB/PSF/POU have kept cigs/visbys just above IFR as confidence in dense fog is less. Any valley fog will dissipate by 14z, with widespread VFR conditions forecast with just some patchy mid and high clouds expected. Light west- northwest winds develop and persist through the daylight hours Tuesday. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures October 3rd ALB 83 (1967) GFL 82 (1898) POU 83 (1995) October 4th ALB 86 (1891) GFL 80 (1951) POU 86 (1941) && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Speciale NEAR TERM...Main/Speciale SHORT TERM...Speciale LONG TERM...Speciale AVIATION...SND CLIMATE...