Albany Office Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 281757
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1257 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will continue to allow for
mostly cloudy skies through tonight, along with some snow showers
and flurries across the higher elevations. High pressure will
finally allow for some sunshine to return to the region for
Wednesday, along with seasonable temperatures. Dry conditions look
to continue for Thursday and Friday with temperature remaining near
normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1238 PM EST...Our region continues to be influenced by a
large upper level trough situated over the Northeastern US and
southeastern Canada. A large closed off upper level low is
located in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and this system will only
slowly shift eastward through the afternoon hours.

The combination of the cold northwest flow over the eastern
Great Lakes and an upper level disturbance rotating around the
backside of the upper level low will continue to keep plenty of
clouds around through the day today. After a very cloudy
morning, visible imagery continues to show nearly overcast skies
in place over the area, with lots of clouds upstream as well.
There probably won`t be too many breaks this afternoon, with
plenty of low level moisture trapped beneath an inversion
located around 850 hpa.

With the inversion heights rather low  and the flow mainly
northwesterly, there won`t be too much organized lake effect
activity, but can`t rule out some light snow showers and
flurries, especially across the higher elevations where upslope
will locally enhance precip. KENX radar imagery has shown a
diminishing trend in the returns, but still can`t rule out some
stray light snow showers or flurries.  Best chance of seeing
snow showers today will be across the western Adirondacks,
eastern Catskills and high terrain of the Taconics, Greens and
northern Berkshires. Most of the snow will be too light to
accumulate and will only go with a fresh coating at best for the
highest terrain.

Otherwise, most areas will just be dry and cloudy through the
afternoon with breezy conditions, especially for the Capital
Region and other areas that channel w-nw flow. Some gusts may
reach 25 mph at times. High temps will generally be in the mid
to upper 30s for valley areas, with mid 20s to low 30s for the
hills and mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight-Wednesday, some lingering snow showers/flurries will
remain possible this evening across higher terrain areas,
especially the SW Adirondacks/eastern Catskills. Otherwise,
biggest challenge will be how much clearing occurs later tonight
into Wednesday, as models suggest deep drying occurring from
north to south toward daybreak Wednesday, and continuing through
Wednesday morning. However, some of the higher-res guidance,
including the 00Z/28 HREFs, suggest areas of low clouds may
linger well into Wednesday for portions of the region,
especially from the Hudson River and points west. For now, will
blend these general ideas and keep skies mostly cloudy
regionwide overnight, with a more gradual clearing trend from
north to south (first in valleys and last for higher elevations)
during Wednesday morning. Lows tonight should fall into the mid
teens to lower/mid 20s, with the colder min temps in any areas
that can clear out by sunrise. If the clouds persist longer,
warmer max temps could occur. Highs Wednesday mainly in the 30s
for valley areas, and 20s across higher terrain areas as well as
portions of the western Mohawk Valley.

Wednesday night-Thursday night, high pressure will be building
across the region allowing for chilly and dry conditions. Still
have to watch for any areas of clouds during this time period,
with lower clouds possible Wednesday night, then high clouds
possibly increasing across the region later Thursday into
Thursday night well to the north of an upper level disturbance
passing south and east of the region. Lows Wednesday night
should be colder than recent nights, with single digits and
teens expected, except possibly falling to between zero and 5
below across portions of the southwest Adirondacks. Highs
Thursday mainly in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Lows Thursday night
may be slightly milder due to some cloud cover, generally
falling into the single digits and teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
On Friday, upper level ridging crests over the area around 7 AM in
the morning and falling heights and increasing moisture advection on
southwest flow begin during the day. Clouds should increase, and
after a brief sunny start, most of the day looks cloudy. On Friday
night, upper level trough swings through the area bringing a slight
chance of some snow showers to southwestern part of forecast area.
Highs Friday from the upper 20s hill towns to upper 30s valleys.
Lows Friday night from the mid teens north to mid 20s south.

Although models continue to show a bomb cyclone off the east
coast this weekend, they continue to keep any phasing of northern
and southern streams far enough east as not to impact the
Albany Forecast Area.

For Saturday, There may be a brief break in the clouds during
morning or mid day before clouds increase late in the day ahead of a
northern stream short wave or clipper type system that moves across
the area Saturday night. Chance POPs Sat/Sat night as system
looks moisture starved and forecast precipitation is .10 inches or
less. Saturday night, there could be dusting of snow in the valleys
with an inch or two of snow in the hill towns. Highs on Saturday
around 30 in the hill towns to upper 30s in the valleys and lows
Saturday night from around 20 north to mid 20s south.

On Sunday, cold advection on northwest flow should dominate our
weather. It will be mostly cloudy and blustery, and there is a
chance of snow showers across the area. Highs Sunday from the upper
20s north to upper 30s south. lows Sunday night from the upper teens
north to mid 20s south.

For Monday, we may be dealing with clouds as a warm front approaches
the area. There could be some light rain or snow showers over the
northwest part of the area. Highs on Monday from around freezing
north to around 40 south. Lows Monday night generally in the 20s
although areas that see clearing where there is still snow on the
ground may drop into the teens.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low end VFR conditions expected to prevail at ALB, POU and GFL
with MVFR at PSF through about 12z/29 thanks to continued
northwest flow. We included a TEMPO group at ALB and POU for
potential MVFR conditions between 21z/28 and 01z/29 as another
more pronounced shortwave enters the Northeast from the Great
Lakes region. At PSF, we did not have enough confidence to
include IFR ceilings but show OVC at 1kft in a TEMPO group to
show potential for near IFR levels during this same window.

Ceilings should gradually improve tonight as high pressure
slowly slides into the region. However, we are skeptical at the
rate at which SKC conditions develop and think low end VFR
ceilings may linger longer into the night than guidance
suggests. Therefore, we held off until after 12z/29 for SKC
ceilings at most sites. PSF we lingered until after 15z/29.

Northwest winds will continue to range between 6-12 Kt through
today and tonight. Winds should shift more north-northwest
tomorrow morning as high pressure moves into the area but remain
sustained between 5 and 10kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
An upper level trough will continue to allow for a few cyclonic
flow snow showers and flurries over the higher elevations
through this evening, but amounts will be very light. Dry
weather is then expected for the whole area for Wednesday
through Friday. Temperatures will continue to be close to normal
for late January. River and stream levels will remain fairly
steady through the week. There will be a chance for snow showers
over the weekend, but this won`t have any immediate impact on
rivers and streams.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...Speciale
HYDROLOGY...Frugis

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion