Albany Office Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS61 KALY 030143
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
943 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure overhead will bring a stretch of warm and dry
weather through much of this week. A return to cooler and
unsettled weather arrives by next weekend as a low pressure
system and cold front cross the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
.Update...As of 9:45 PM EDT...Calm, quiet night with tranquil
weather continues. Temperatures are mainly in the 50s now, with
some of the areas that typically radiate well already in the low
50s, which is just a couple degrees below the previous forecast. While
we may see a few more clouds across the ADKs towards morning
with approaching mid-level warm advection, satellite imagery
upstream is not showing many clouds, so it looks like
temperatures should continue to drop to their respective dew
points within the next few to several hours, resulting in patchy
fog tonight. Mainly just refreshments to previous temp/dew
point/sky grids to reflect current trends with this update.
Previous forecast remains in good shape with a few more details
below...
..Previous...Ridging aloft and a 1022 mb surface high located
over the region are leading to clear skies and calm winds this
evening. Other than a few mid-level clouds across the ADKs and
upper Hudson Valley associated with warm advection towards
sunrise, mainly clear skies and calm winds are expected through
the night. Will note that locally dense fog in some of the
typically favored river valley areas is possible late tonight
towards sunrise. Low temperatures should drop into the upper
40s to low 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The stretch of dry weather and above normal temperatures
continues Tuesday through Thursday as large scale ridging with
500hPa heights near 585-590dam from the Central CONUS slides
overhead and eventually into the western Atlantic. 850hPa
isotherms rise to +16 to +18C with boundary mixing reach up to
~900hPa. This will support temperatures warming 15-20+ degrees
above normal and even challenging daily records highs at our
climate sites Tuesday and Wednesday as many climb into the low
to even mid-80s. See our climate section of our AFD for details.
Dew points will also be on the climb, reaching into the upper
50s to low 60s as sfc winds shifts to the southwest. This will
make it feel even warmer.
A ~1030hPa sfc high pressure builds into the Canadian Maritimes
by Thursday, resulting in a southeast flow off the Atlantic for
much of the Northeast. This should cool temperatures down a bit
compared to Tuesday/Wednesday but still remain above normal with
highs in the mid to upper 70s, perhaps approaching near 80 in
the Hudson Valley, depending on boundary layer mixing.
Otherwise, overnight lows will cool into the 50s to low 60s both
nights thanks to clear skies supporting radiational cooling.
Patchy fog and/or low stratus may develop each morning Tuesday
through Wednesday morning as temperatures cool towards their
respective dew points.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The main focus of the long term period remains on an incoming
amplified shortwave trough from the Midwest which guidance shows
potentially becoming negatively tilted and even possibly
closing off as it pushes through the Northeast. There still are
some timing discrepancies with this feature among the latest
guidance which is likely tied to the upstream strong ridging in
the western Atlantic and potential phasing between shortwaves.
These types of set-ups typically slow down as the event nears,
especially if this transitions into a cut-off low, so we delayed
likely POPs until Saturday into Saturday evening. With strong
southerly winds ahead of the incoming shortwave trough and a
rather tight moisture/thermal gradient and low-level convergence
along the incoming sfc cold front, enough instability could be
generated to support some thunderstorms. We therefore included
slight chance thunder for this period. Strong height falls
ahead of the incoming trough, especially if it becomes
negatively tilted, look to also be in place to support periods
of moderate to potentially even heavy rain ahead of and as the
cold front arrives; however, this looks to be a rather
progressive front so that any flooding should be localized. WPC
does highlight our area in its Day 5 ERO with a marginal risk
so we we will continue to monitor the potential for any
flooding.
Behind the front,a noticeable cool down occurs as a much cooler
air mass sweeps across the Northeast. This will lead to a
period of autumn-like temperatures for Sunday and especially Monday
along with breezy conditions and some wrap around showers as
moist, cyclonic flow continues in the wake of the front. Breezy
westerly winds advecting much cooler air over the still warm
Lake Ontario waters may induce some lake enhanced rain showers
so we lingered chance POPs into Sunday and even Monday.
Overnight temperatures could also drop into the 30s, especially
in the hill down and higher terrain, leading to unfavorable
conditions for sensitive, outdoor vegetation during the
overnight periods at the start of the new work week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...conditions are currently VFR at all
terminals but we are expecting areas of radiational valley fog
or mist to develop tonight. Have included LIFR at KGFL in both
vsby/cigs. At ALB/PSF/POU have kept cigs/visbys just above IFR
as confidence in dense fog is less.
Any valley fog will dissipate by 14z, with widespread VFR
conditions forecast with just some patchy mid and high clouds
expected. Light west- northwest winds develop and persist
through the daylight hours Tuesday.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures
October 3rd
ALB 83 (1967)
GFL 82 (1898)
POU 83 (1995)
October 4th
ALB 86 (1891)
GFL 80 (1951)
POU 86 (1941)
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Main/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...SND
CLIMATE...
NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion
