Albany Office Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 271945
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
245 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will trigger a few light rain showers this
evening, and some light rain and snow showers late tonight and
Saturday morning, mainly over higher elevations north and west
of the Capital District. Mainly dry, continued mild weather will
prevail Saturday night and Sunday as high pressure builds
across the region, then rain is expected on Monday as low
pressure moves in from the south and west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A series of weak short wave troughs will move across the area
tonight through Saturday morning. As a result, continued cloudy
weather can be expected, along with a few very light showers of
rain and snow mainly north and west of the Capital District.
Moisture will be rather shallow with this system and as a result
precipitation type could also be in the form of some light
drizzle, but again temperaures will remain generally above
freezing in most areas through tonight. Lows tonight will be
mainly in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The primary short wave will pass east of our area by midday
Saturday, with any lingering light showers ending by early
afternoon, and some clearing possible especially in the Hudson
Valley during the afternoon. Some weak cold advection will occur
behind the trough, but the airmass will not be cold enough to
produce any lake effect precipitation and temperatures overall
will remain above normal. High pressure will build toward the
region at the surface and aloft Saturday night through Sunday,
bringing a period of dry, mild weather the Sunday.

The next significant storm system that will affect our area will
be on Monday. Our operational models are in good agreement that
phasing between the northern and southern branches of the jet
stream will cause a rapid amplification of the pattern, with
surface low pressure developing over the mid-Mississippi Valley
and tracking toward the eastern Great Lakes on Monday. This
systesm will spread mainly rain across our area during the day
on Monday, along with increasingly gusty southeasterly winds.
Other than a small chance for a little mixed precipitation on
the leading edge of the system early Monday across the north
country, this system appears to be almost enitrely a rain maker
for our area as cold high pressure will move quickly east of
the Canadian maritimes and cold air damming will be limited.
Earliest indications are that the heaviest rain may split
around our area, with one stripe of heavy rain near the storm
track over the eastern Great Lakes, while another band of heavy
rain falls over eastern New England. However with this storm
still 3 days away those details could still change and we will
be watching this storm closely especially with regards to heavy
rain potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A large closed upper low will be centered over the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys Monday night. This upper low will be a bit displaced from
the surface low to its northeast. This will allow for a dry slot to
quickly work into the region Monday night into Tuesday morning, with
the heaviest axis/surge of rain shifting into southern New England.
Therefore, we may see a period of dry weather or just some drizzle
on Tuesday. The two low centers phase during this period and lift
northward across far western New York into southern Quebec. The wrap
around moisture on the back side of the low should stay mostly out
of the forecast area with perhaps the best chance for rain/snow
across the southern Dacks Tuesday night-Wednesday. P-type will be
primarily rain except for on the back side of the upper low.
Temperatures will range from 40s to low 50s on Tuesday cooling down
into the 20s and low 30s Tuesday night.

Upper ridging builds into the region with mainly dry weather through
the remainder of the work week. Temperatures will be fairly
seasonable and cool with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s each day.
The next significant storm system takes shape for next weekend but
there still too much uncertainty to talk about it yet.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18z/Sat...Outside of another hour or so of high-end MVFR
cigs at KPOU, VFR conditions are expected into the overnight hours
as a bkn-ovc stratus/stratocu deck between 3500-5000 feet continues.

As an upper-level shortwave passes through late tonight into
tomorrow morning, cigs are expected to lower, where a period of MVFR
conditions will be possible (mainly at KGFL/KALB/KPSF). KPOU likely
remains low-end VFR. It is also within this period a brief shower
cannot be ruled out, but due to the limited coverage, will not
include VCSH at this time. As the shortwave departs, cigs should
improve back to VFR by 18z/Sat.

Wind will be generally out of the west at 10 kt or less this
afternoon and then less than 5 kt tonight. Wind will increase
out of the west during the midday hours Saturday at 7-14 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A widespread moderate to possibly heavy rainfall Monday and
Monday night. A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible
with locally higher amounts around 3 inches especially for
portions of the eastern Catskills and possibly portions of the
western New England. Rainfall intensity likely won`t be high
enough to cause flash flooding or enough to main-stem river
flooding. Still, ponding of water will be possible, especially
on roadways, fields and in urban areas. Please refer to the long
term section for further insight into the forecast.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...IAA

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion