Albany Office Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KALY 222111
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
511 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will move off to our east tonight and
higher pressure will begin to build in. The high will dominate
our weather through Wednesday with fair weather and seasonable
temperatures. The weather will turn unsettled for the latter
part of the week as a slow moving low pressure system approaches
and moves across the region bringing a widespread rainfall to
the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
At 4 pm the occluded front was located to our west across
central New York with a weak area of low pressure at the triple
point over MD/VA with showers occurring ahead of these features.
The occluded boundary will weaken as it moves east across the
local area this evening and the low will off the DELMARVA coast
bringing an end to the showers. Higher pressure will begin to
build in at the surface overnight. With wet/damp ground, decreasing
clouds, winds becoming light and cooling temperatures have some
fog in the forecast. Overnight lows are expected to be
seasonable dropping into the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak ridging will build in at the surface Tuesday and is
expected to remain over the area through Wednesday with fair
weather and seasonable temperatures. Guidance has come into
better agreement having a weak low pass well south off Long
Island Tuesday night into Wednesday with its associated
precipitation remaining well to our south and east. Aloft
some ridging will be induced over the region in advance of a
deepening trough to our west across the central CONUS. A low
pressure system will develop over the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys in
response to the deepening trough. An upper low is expected to
develop Wednesday night as vigorous short wave energy rotates
about the base of the trough resulting in a nearly vertically
stacked system. Chances for showers will be on the increase
late Wednesday night as the system gradually approaches. There
are indications that secondary development may occur over the
DELMARVA region as the upper trough begins to become negatively
tilted.

Expecting seasonable warm temperatures during the day both
Tuesday and Wednesday along with light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Confidence continues to grow in an unsettled pattern impacting
Memorial Day weekend. We start off with an amplifying trough from
the Midwest moving into the Northeast as a coastal low from the
Gulf moves up the East Coast Thursday. Just how much rainfall
we receive in addition to the potential for any thunderstorms
will be contingent upon how far north the system`s warm front
travels. Past few days guidance shows the front only getting up
to NYC/coastal CT which keeps the majority of our CWA out of the
warm sector. BUFKIT soundings only show limited elevated
instability in our far southern and eastern spots so put the
threat for thunder there. Still not certain on system`s exact
speed but thinking that Thursday afternoon should be wetter than
the morning as showers move into our area from southwest to
northeast through the day Thursday. Given impressive 850mb jet
over eastern part of CWA and decent packing of isotherms, some
steadier periods of rain are possible.

By Thursday night, a dry slot should wrap into the low and provide
breaks of dry time; however, given that the upper level low should
still near the area, kept likely POPS in the area. Diurnal
heating in addition to the upper level low cutting off and
moving over the Northeast should allow showers to resume during
the daytime Friday so continued likely POPs. The trough axis
should exit the area Saturday so lowered POPS in south/west
counties but kept chance POP north/east. Ridging builds in for
the daytime Saturday so it should end by being a pleasant day
for most areas.

Watching another mid latitude cyclone moving into the Great
Lakes/Northeast for Sunday/Monday. Given this is a week away, do not
have high confidence on exact timing of precipitation. Current
guidance suggests that the first half of Sunday should feature dry
time under increasing clouds before the threat for showers increase
late in the day into Monday.

Temperatures for the extended should average near to slightly below
normal with highs in the upper 60s to low-mid 70s most days and
above average precipitation amounts due to the unsettled pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure and an associated frontal system will track east
across the region this afternoon into tonight.

CIGS are expected to gradually lower to 1-3kft throughout the
afternoon/evening as southerly flow off of the Atlantic Ocean
increases the low level moisture. In terms of rain chances, a
steadier area of rainfall is moving through the area north of
the Capital District this afternoon, likely impacting KGFL for
an hour or two. Additional light showers will be possible as the
front moves through the region later this evening but are not
expected to have any major impact on the TAF sites.

Once the front passes through, some breaks in the mid level
clouds are expected and may allow for areas of fog and/or low
stratus to develop after 00Z/Tue, with associated IFR/LIFR
conditions. After 12Z/Tue, VFR conditions are anticipated as
high pressure builds into eastern New York.

Winds will be mainly from the south to southeast at 5-10 KT
today, with some gusts of 20-25 KT possible, especially at
KALB. Winds will shift into the west to northwest between 05Z-
08Z/Tue as the front moves across, at speeds generally 5-10 KT,
although may be briefly gusty as the front passes through.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A low pressure system will move off to our east tonight and
higher pressure will begin to build in. The high will dominate
our weather through Wednesday with fair weather and seasonable
temperatures. The weather will turn unsettled for the latter
part of the week as a slow moving low pressure system approaches
and moves across the region bringing a widespread rainfall to
the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A low pressure system will move off to our east tonight and
higher pressure will begin to build in. The high will dominate
our weather through Wednesday with fair weather. The weather
will turn unsettled for the latter part of the week as a slow
moving low pressure system approaches and moves across the
region bringing a widespread rainfall to the area.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...JVM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion