NYC Office Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KOKX 141945
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
245 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves off into the Northern Atlantic this
afternoon as a weak warm front passes to the north. A cold
front will move through Friday night, and high pressure will
build in for the weekend. An offshore storm will pass to the
south and east Sunday night into Monday. Another offshore storm
may potentially impact the area during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Clouds with the weak inverted trough within the region will be
mainly high level clouds with some lower level stratocumulus for
eastern parts of the forecast region.

Model solutions have been consistently pretty dry without any
precipitation except for extreme eastern locations of the region
late and the negative vorticity increasing is with height is
conveyed from mid to upper levels for the afternoon into early
evening. Forecast trended down in areal coverage for any light
showers with just a slight chance of light rain showers over the
Twin Forks of Long Island late this afternoon and into Southern
New London CT, and for Northern New London CT it is a slight
chance of light rain and snow showers with wet bulb cooling.

The return southerly flow will aid in low level warm air
advection with highs just slightly lowered because of the
abundance of clouds. Forecast highs are still in the upper 30s
for the interior to mid 40s across urban Northeast NJ, NYC and
much of the coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Should still see mostly cloudy skies and a few sprinkles across
eastern Long Island/CT this evening as the trough slowly drifts
eastward, with winds shifting W and skies becoming mostly
clear in its wake. Lows should range from the mid 20s inland
to the 30s along the coast.

A weakening cold front will approach on Friday. With mostly
sunny skies and downslope W flow ahead of the front, temps
should moderate further, with highs reaching the upper 40s and
lower 50s, only slightly below avg.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term period starts off rather quiet, with cold front
approaching and moving through dry Friday night with little in
the way of moisture to work with.

Canadian high pressure builds in for the weekend, moving in from
the Great Lakes region on Saturday, then into New England
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Meanwhile, an area of low
pressure will develop along the southern branch of the jet
stream, off the Southeast coast. The ECMWF and GFS are in fairly
good agreement with the track of the low, taking it south and
east of Long Island Sunday night into Monday morning, with just
part or all of the area being on the northern fringes of the
system. There are timing differences between the two, with the
GFS being the typically more progressive solution. The Canadian
is an outlier, with a typically too strong coastal low solution.

It may be cold enough for some snow inland, either all snow or
rain/snow mixture. However, chances for precipitation are
lower for this area, since it will be farther from the low.

There is still a great deal of uncertainty with track and
strength of this low, so cut POPs off at chance Sunday night
into Monday.

Thereafter, a large amplitude trough digs as far south as
Florida, with disturbances moving up along the west side,
along a frontal boundary well off shore. The ECMWF develops a
fairly significant coastal low Tuesday night into Wednesday
night, however, it is the only model to do so, therefore,
limited POPs to slight chance for this time frame.

As for temperatures, they will average below normal for the long
term period, with Canadian high pressure for Saturday and
Sunday. Highs in the 30s to around 40 are expected on Saturday,
and upper 30s to middle 40s for Sunday. Slow warming continues
into the week, but should still be seasonably cool at best.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak warm front passes to the north this afternoon. A cold
front approaches tonight into Friday.

VFR. BKN ceilings around 4000 ft are likely at KGON into this
evening.

S-SW winds around 10 kt or less into the evening. Winds will
diminish tonight as they veer to the W and then W-NW. W-NW winds
under 10 kt expected on Friday morning.

  ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Wind direction may vary 30-40 degrees at
times from forecast through 00z.

KLGA TAF Comments: Wind direction may vary 30-40 degrees at
times from forecast through 00z.

KEWR TAF Comments: Wind direction may vary 30-40 degrees at
times from forecast through 00z.

KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday Afternoon...VFR.
.Friday night...VFR. NW wind gusts 20-30 kt.
.Saturday-Sunday...VFR. Wind N-NE around 15kt with gusts 20-30kt.
.Monday...MVFR or lower possible. Chance of rain near coast and
wintry mix inland early. NE wind gusts 15-20 kt.
.Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below advisory levels through Friday.

SCA conditions are expected across all waters by Friday night
as the pressure gradient increases due to incoming high and
approaching low pressure from the south. Gusts of at least 25
kt are possible. Gales are possible across the ocean waters
Saturday morning as these areas will be closer to the low. Gusts
up to 25 kt remain possible for most waters Saturday night
through Sunday, except perhaps the the western sound and NY
Harbor.

Seas increase Friday night, with 5-6 ft possible for the ocean
waters by late Friday night into Saturday morning. Seas should
continue to build up to 9 ft on the ocean into Sunday morning,
with 10-14 ft possible by Sunday night. Seas of 4-8 ft also
possible then for far eastern Long Island Sound and western
Block Island Sound.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
An offshore storm has potential to produce minor coastal
flooding beginning on the Long Island south shore back bays and
on the western Sound this weekend. Departures of 1.5 to 2 ft
are forecast by that time.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is operating
at reduced power until further notice.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman
NEAR TERM...Goodman/JM
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...Goodman/JP
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion