NYC Office Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KOKX 020553
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1253 AM EST Thu Dec 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front moves north through the area tonight into Thursday.
A cold front then quickly follows and passes through Thursday
night, with brief high pressure following. Low pressure passes to
the north on Saturday. High pressure builds in Saturday night
through Sunday. A frontal system impacts the region Monday night
through Tuesday. Brief high pressure builds in Tuesday night
before another frontal system impacts the area Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Low temperatures have likely been reached in most areas, with
increasing cloud cover and strengthening warm advection as a
weak upper wave approaches. Light returns can be seen on radar
over the western half of the area, and showers will continue
overnight. Given a warming profile, any potential for mixed
precipitation across the interior will likely be brief, if at
all. The bulk of the precipitation clears the region by sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The warm front quickly moves north of the area on Thursday, with
southwest flow strengthening in its wake across the area.
Continued warm advection will allow temperatures to rise into
the 50s across the area, with a few points near 60 in
northeastern NJ. These values will be close to 10 degrees above
climatological normal.

Any break in precipitation and cloud cover will be brief before
a strong cold front moves through in the afternoon, bringing the
potential for some shower activity. Cold advection will
strengthen as it passes with the increase in winds. Though
Thursday night lows will remain in the 30s across the interior
and 40s near the coast with continued mixing, the wind chill
will make it feel around 10 degrees colder.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term will be characterized by a rather progressive pattern
during this time frame, with frontal systems impacting the area
Monday night through Tuesday, and then again in the middle of next
week.

A ridge of high pressure at the surface will cross the area for
Friday. The high will shift south as a surface low and upper level
trough move across the Northeast US on Saturday. A secondary low may
develop off shore as the low to the west approaches the coast.
However, the parent low looks to pass too far north, and the
secondary low develops too far east for any mention of precipitation
for Saturday.

High pressure will then build in for the rest of the weekend. With a
more zonal flow aloft and thicknesses rising somewhat, temperatures
will be a few degrees warmer on Sunday as compared to Saturday.

The next system will affect the region Sunday night as a warm front
approaches from the southwest. Enough cold air may be in place
Sunday night due to cold air damming inland, for some snow to mix in
with rain at the start, while precipitation will be plain rain at
elsewhere. With the warm front approaching, temperatures will rise
overnight, and precipitation will change over to plain rain
everywhere by daybreak Monday. There is some uncertainty this far
out with the track of the low and passage of the cold front, but
what does seem to be certain is the low will pass west of the
forecast area Monday morning. Light rain will continue into Monday
night as the front moves through. Conditions may become breezy on
Monday with the low strengthening, but should diminish Monday
night as it tracks northeast away from the area.

High pressure briefly builds in Monday night into Tuesday, but then
gives way to another frontal system by the middle of next week.

Above normal temperatures are expected for Monday as the warm front
lifts north of the region, with a return to seasonably cool
conditions Tuesday. Slightly above normal temperatures are expected
Wednesday as the high shifts off shore and warmer advects into the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A warm front approaches and passes through this morning.

Mostly VFR, but MVFR possible for KSWF/KHPN during the pre-dawn
hours. Rain showers pass through and should shift out the
area by 12z. Showers possible again this aftn, but likely
remaining VFR.

Southerly winds under 10 kt before 12z, then winds start to
increase as they veer toward SW. SW winds this afternoon 10-15
kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Winds increase further tonight as they
become westerly.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Tempo MVFR possible before 12z. Onset of frequent gusts could be
off by 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Tonight...Mainly VFR, Low chance of a rain showers with MVFR
possible. W-WNW wind 10-20 kt with gusts 20-29 kt.
.Friday and Friday night...VFR. WNW wind around 10-15 kt with
gusts around 25 kt. WNW winds subside at night.
.Saturday...Mainly VFR. W-WNW winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to
near 20 kt Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.
.Sunday...VFR during the day. Chance of rain/snow showers
inland at night with chance of rain showers along the coast.
MVFR possible at night.
.Monday...MVFR possible with a chance of rain showers. SW winds
10- 20 kt with gusts around 25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA has been issued beginning Thursday morning on the ocean
waters as winds and seas increase following a warm frontal
passage. SCA conditions then are expected across all waters in
the wake of the cold frontal passage Thursday evening. By
Friday, wave heights on the ocean waters will range from 5 to 8
ft in the morning, but will diminish throughout the day as low
pressure tracks northeast into southern Canada. The ocean waters
will fall below 5 ft from west to east Friday night. Occasional
5 ft waves are possible for the eastern sound early Friday
morning, but otherwise, waves will stay below 5 ft for all other
waters into Friday night. Winds gusts of 25 to 30 kt everywhere
Friday morning, but will also diminish during the day, falling
below 25 kt for non-ocean waters by the late morning, then
Friday evening for the ocean waters.

Winds and waves will then generally remain below SCA criteria until
Sunday night as a frontal system approaches the waters from the
west. Waves will build on the ocean waters to 5 to 10 ft from late
Sunday night into Monday night. SCA winds are likely on the ocean
waters, and possible across all waters by Monday afternoon. There is
the possibility of seeing slightly higher winds/waves if the system
will be stronger than expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM EST Friday
     for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

AVIATION...BC/JC

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion