NYC Office Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KOKX 262028
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
328 PM EST Sat Nov 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides to our south and east tonight. A frontal system
approaches Sunday and moves across the area late Sunday evening.
High pressure builds into the area Monday and Monday night and
then remains in control through Tuesday night. The next frontal
system impacts the area Wednesday and Wednesday night before
high pressure returns for the end of next week. Another frontal
system may approach next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
High pressure, currently centered to our southwest, will slide to
our south and east overnight. Aloft, heights continue to rise
slightly the first half of the night as a ridge axis doesn`t
cross the area until late tonight.

Skies remain clear the rest of this evening and through the first
half of tonight. High cirrus will then spread over the area ahead of
an approaching frontal system, and by the early morning hours skies
will be mostly cloudy.

There may be a few hours of decent radiational cooling conditions,
but mainly across the interior where winds will be lighter. In those
locations, lows will be in the lower to mid 30s. Elsewhere, lows
will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. These lows are actually above
normal for late November by about 5 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level low lifts out of the Southern Plains tonight and
opens up as it interacts with northern stream energy as it
nears the area late Sunday afternoon. At the surface, an
associated frontal system will move across the area late Sunday
evening into Sunday night with the center passing to our north
and west. This system will bring rain, with periods of moderate
rainfall, and gusty conditions. No hydrologic impacts are
expected. See hydrology section below.

The early morning starts off dry and then light rain will enter the
area from the west around 15z at the earliest. Any moderate rainfall
is most likely to occur between 20z and 03z from west to east. This
is when pwats look the highest as a plume of moisture enters the
region from the south. Guidance shows pwats as high as 1.40 inches
across the southern half of the area which is around the max moving
average for the 00z 11/28 sounding at OKX per SPC Sounding
Climatology. Forecast soundings also show a few hundred J/kg of
MUCAPE around the same time and thunder can not be completely ruled
out. However, due to low confidence in occurrence have left it
out of the forecast for now.

The area likely dries out completely by 06z and skies clear a
bit from west to east, with some lingering low clouds heading
into Monday morning. Highs on Sunday will be above average with
a warm southerly flow. Highs in the upper 50s and low 60s are
expected across Long Island and the NYC metro area. Low to mid
50s elsewhere. Lows Sunday night will be about 10 degrees
warmer than tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The global deterministic models and ensemble means continue to be in
good agreement on the overall pattern evolution through the end of
next week. The forecast thinking has little change overall for this
period.

Low pressure and its associated frontal system will depart New
England on Monday. High pressure builds to our west, so the CWA will
lie within the pressure gradient between the high and departing low
pressure. Gusty NW winds will result and generally will be 20-25
mph, although there could be some gusts to 30 mph near the coast in
the morning. The downslope flow and mixing will lead to another day
of above normal temperatures in the 50s. The pressure gradient
relaxes in the evening as the high begins to build overhead. Good
radiational cooling conditions should occur Monday night, especially
away from the immediate coast, with lows dropping into the 20s
inland and the lower to middle 30s elsewhere. High pressure remains
over the area on Tuesday with less mixing. This will lead to high
temperatures near normal in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.

Attention then turns to an amplifying upper trough over the Plains
Tuesday night. Ridging over the eastern seaboard shifts offshore
through Wednesday as the trough continues to amplify and approach
the eastern states. Deepening low pressure lifts over the Great
Lakes and into southeast Canada on Wednesday, dragging a strong cold
front towards the region through the day. There is general agreement
on most of the showers with the system occurring Wednesday afternoon
and evening. The associated warm front lifts north initially,
supporting the showers in the afternoon. The main cold front quickly
follows in the evening with potential of a more organized line of
showers. Have increased PoPs, but still a bit lower than the NBM.
The system does bring potential for a period of moderate to locally
heavy rainfall. However, the NBM probabilities for greater than 1
inch of rain in any six hour period Wednesday afternoon and evening
are still less than 5 percent. The system is progressive which
should help limit the duration of any moderate to locally heavy
rain.

The next concern late Wednesday into Wednesday night is strong,
gusty winds. Southerly flow ahead of the system likely increases
winds through the day, but the stronger winds may hold off until
Wednesday night immediately ahead of the front and then again behind
the frontal passage. The pressure gradient behind the front is quite
steep owing to a large pressure difference between the primary low
over southeast Canada and sprawling high pressure over the central
states. The modeling differs on the intensity of the primary low,
which will impact the pressure gradient and boundary layer winds.
Despite these differences, there is potential for gusts 35-40 mph
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Gusty winds continue
into Thursday as the low departs and high builds towards the region.
Warm advection ahead of the cold front Wednesday could push
temperatures into the upper 50s to near 60 degrees. Temperatures
then fall back to slightly below normal levels on Thursday in the
40s.

High pressure should remain in control to end next week with near to
slightly below normal temperatures. Another frontal system may
approach next weekend, but it is much too early for any confidence
in its strength and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure moves offshore tonight. A frontal system approaches
from the southwest on Sunday before crossing the area Sunday evening.

VFR conditions expected through Sunday morning. Conditions will
deteriorate Sunday afternoon as rain overspreads the area, falling
to IFR by around 21Z at the city terminals.

Winds will continue to back to the west this afternoon at around 10
kt through late this afternoon before shifting to the SW and
decreasing to 5-10 kt tonight. Winds then increase and become more
southerly by late Sunday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected through Sunday morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday...IFR in rain Sunday afternoon. S winds 10-15 kt with G20-
30kt for KJFK/KLGA and Long Island terminals. LLWS possible late
afternoon/evening. Ceilings and visibilities improve from west to
east Sunday night.
.Monday...VFR. NW gusts 20-25 kt during day.
.Tuesday...VFR.
.Wednesday...MVFR or lower at times in showers. S winds G20-25 kt in
the afternoon, shifting to the SW at night with G25-30 kt at night.
.Thursday...VFR. W winds G25-30kt gradually diminish during the
afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds increase tonight with a tightening pressure gradient as
high pressure slides to our south and east. A SCA is in effect
tonight for the eastern two Ocean Zones. W/SW winds will gust up
to 25 kt in those locations.

There could be a lull period Sunday morning, but by Sunday afternoon
southerly winds increase with an approaching frontal system. Winds
peak Sunday night and a Gale Watch has been issued for the Ocean
zones for the Sunday night period. A SCA is in effect for all non
ocean waters from 20z Sunday through Sunday night. Peak winds Sunday
night across the ocean will gust up to 34-37 kt and across non ocean
waters up to 25-30 kt. Waves on the ocean will reach 8-10 ft Sunday
night.

Gusty NW winds and SCA conditions continue on Monday on all waters.
Winds and seas subside Monday night below SCA levels with the
exception of lingering seas near 5 ft east of Moriches Inlet. Sub-
SCA conditions are then likely on Tuesday and Tuesday night. A
strengthening S flow is likely on Wednesday ahead of a cold front,
which will bring a return to SCA conditions, especially in the
afternoon and evening. There is also a chance for gales Wednesday
night with the frontal passage and then post-frontal. SCA conditions
are likely to continue on Thursday as high pressure builds towards
the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There will be periods of moderate rainfall Sunday late afternoon
through the evening, but no hydrologic impacts anticipated. Total
rainfall amounts will be between 0.5 and 1.0 inches.

No hydrologic impacts expected with showers accompanying a strong
frontal system late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Most locations should stay below minor flooding benchmarks on Sunday
across the South Shore Back Bays, but the most vulnerable locations
could just touch briefly. No statements are planned at this time.
Elsewhere, water levels are expected to remain below minor flooding
benchmarks on Sunday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 6 AM EST Monday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353.
     Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for
     ANZ350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM EST Sunday for ANZ355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...DS/JT
HYDROLOGY...DS/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DS

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion