NYC Office Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KOKX 011752
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
152 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains offshore today. A cold front will approach
Saturday and works its way through the area Saturday night
through early Sunday. Weak high pressure will build in early
next week. A series of disturbances may impact the area during
mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Some subtle adjustments were made with this afternoon update.
With instability axis off to our southwest expanding northeast,
some concerns exist now that the cap as it weakens can be
overcome as the afternoon progresses, especially across western
and southwestern portions of the area into early this evening.
Thus inched up PoPs and added isolated to scattered wording with
respect to any t-storms that initiate. SPC also nudged marginal
a bit to the east where it goes right up against western /
southwestern portions of the area into this evening. Otherwise,
no meaningful adjustments made.

South to southwest flow ushering in hot and humid conditions.
Temperatures this afternoon have climbed into the mid 80s to
lower 90s, with middle 90s over at EWR. Heat indices in the
metro of NE NJ will top off in the mid 90s and a few isolated
upper 90s, with lower 90s across NYC. These values fall short
of heat advisory criteria as this is expected only for the day,
thus no heat headlines will be issued, but it will be hot and
uncomfortable nonetheless.

There will be an increase in instability later this afternoon
and early in the evening along a pre- frontal trough well ahead
of a cold front. Isolated to potentially scattered convection
is expected to develop this evening and tonight across the
region. Also there may be a chance that convection attempts to
initiate along any sea breeze boundaries towards evening.
Temperatures will remain warm with overnight lows in the upper
60s to low 70s. It will also feel very muggy as the south to
southwest flow continues across the area and dewpoints remain in
the upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
Unsettled weather on tap for Saturday as a cold front
approaches and slowly works its way through the area. WPC
continues to have the area in a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall Saturday, while SPC has the majority of the area in a
slight risk of severe weather.

Conditions will be warm and humid ahead of the front with highs
in the 80s and surface dew points in the 70s. PWATs will range
between 1.5 to around 2 inches. Showers and thunderstorms
develop throughout the day, with the heaviest showers and
stronger thunderstorms expected to occur in the afternoon and
through early evening resulting in some flash flooding. Refer
to the hydrology section for further details.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
No significant changes in the long term and stuck fairly close to
the NBM.

With the frontal boundary right on top of the area Sat night,
showers/tstms will likely still be ongoing, especially across
NE NJ and the NYC metro area, perhaps also across Long Island and
coastal CT. The front moves rather slowly and there could be some
left over showers early Sunday morning, and will reflect this with
some slight chance pops in the morning mainly across Long Island,
NYC and NE NJ. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions are expected for
Sunday. Mainly dry wx should continue into Independence Day, though
may have to watch for an isolated late day shower or tstm NW of NYC
with a warm front just off to the west.

An active wx pattern could be shaping up for mid to late next
week as multiple disturbances ride atop a ridge over the
central U.S. and then head ESE toward the Northeast and/or Mid
Atlantic in WNW flow aloft between the ridge and an upper trough
over eastern Canada.

Temps during the period should range from near to a few degrees
above the seasonal avg from Sunday-Tue, then return to near avg
Wed-Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure moves offshore this afternoon as a cold front
approaches from the Great Lakes.

Mainly VFR. TSRA development in and around the NYC terminals a
good possibility early this evening. Will cover this threat
with a tempo group, mainly from about 21z-02z. Additional
SHRA/TSRA activity is expected overnight and through a good part
of Saturday, however timing and placement of any precipitation
remains low at this time. Most of the time will be dry but where
storms occur very heavy rain is likely. Any SHRA or TSRA may
result in MVFR conditions and produce strong winds gusts to 35
kt. IFR or less in stratus/fog is expected at KGON tonight.

A S/SW flow will steadily increases to 10-20G20-30 kt and
continues into this evening. Highest winds and gusts will be at
the coastal terminals. Winds will diminish a bit after
midnight, with most terminals losing their gusts and speeds 12kt
or less. SW winds Saturday 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Confidence on timing and coverage of thunderstorms is lower than
usual. Thunderstorms are likely but where and when they occur in
the next 24-36 hours remains challenging to pinpoint. Best
chance of severe storms appears to be Sat afternoon and evening.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sat...SHRA/TSRA likely with MVFR or lower at times, especially
in the afternoon.
.Sun...Mainly VFR, period of MVFR possible in AM.
.Mon...Mainly VFR.
.Tue...Chance of MVFR in SHRA.
.Wed...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Below SCA conditions across area waters through this morning as
a weak high pressure remains offshore. With a south to southwest
flow increasing this afternoon seas will begin to approach SCA
levels and likely to continue above SCA conditions on the ocean
through Saturday night, with SW flow 15-20 kt keeping seas at 5
or 6 ft. Seas then fall below SCA criteria on Sunday and
continue through Tuesday. Can`t rule out seas approaching 5 ft
on the ocean waters Tue night ahead of the next approaching
weather system.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms are likely to bring pockets
of locally heavy rainfall Saturday into Saturday evening
resulting in some minor urban and poor drainage flooding. No
hydrologic impacts are expected at this time Sunday through
Friday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Today, S-SW flow will increase the rip current risk to
moderate, and possibly high late in the afternoon for the
beaches of Nassau/Queens/Western Suffolk as onshore winds start
gusting over 25 kt and seas build.

A high rip current risk is forecast for Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/20
NEAR TERM...JE/20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/20
HYDROLOGY...BC/20
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion