NYC Office Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KOKX 202354
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
754 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the region tonight, then weakens and
slides east on Friday. A cold front will approach Friday
afternoon and move across the area Friday night into Saturday
morning. Strong high pressure builds to the north of the area
this weekend and then offshore early next week. A frontal system
will then impact the area Tuesday into Wednesday, ending with a
cold frontal passage Wednesday night. High pressure follows for
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Clouds, some stratus, have developed in the easterly flow as
high pressure builds in from the north.

High pressure remains over the region tonight, as a warm front
will lift north of the region tonight into early Friday morning.
Winds will remain light and temperatures will fall into 50s and
lower 60s. With the cloud cover there is some concern that
temperatures will not fall off to the lows currently forecast.

Used a MAV/MET/ECS blend for temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over the region slide east through the day
Friday, as a cold front moves towards the region, eventually
passing through the area late Friday night into Saturday
morning.

Skies should remain mostly cloudy into Friday afternoon,
especially well north and west of NYC in advance of the cold
front as moisture remains trapped beneath a low level inversion.
Further east, skies may become partly cloudy by afternoon.
Gusts Friday afternoon could reach 25-30 mph. Highs on Friday
should reach the lower and middle 70s.

Friday late afternoon through Friday night, the cold front
moves across the area accompanied by showers and a chance of
thunderstorms. Forecast models showing any convective line that
develops friday afternoon, should weaken as it approaches and
moves across the local area as it reaches a more stable
environment during the late evening and overnight hours. Lows
Friday night will drop into the 60s.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at
the Atlantic ocean beaches of New York City, Nassau county, and
southwestern Suffolk, and a high risk at the southeastern
Suffolk Atlantic beaches Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On the heels of a cold frontal passage early Saturday morning,
a progressive, confluent upper flow across the northeast
quarter of the nation will allow for strong high pressure to
build to the north of the area this weekend. Temperatures will
drop to or just below seasonable levels during this period.

There could be some high clouds Saturday night into the first
half of Sunday as a frontal wave passes to the south of the
area. There is also slight chance of light rain in the waters
south of Long Island. This feature will have to be watched if
the upper flow amplifies a bit more with a passing shortwave.
However, would not expect much more than a possible sprinkle
across Long Island and the NYC metro.

The weather then takes a downhill swing for the midweek as an
upper trough out west races eastward with a frontal system
impacting the area Tuesday into Wednesday. First of which will
be with overrunning showers Monday night into Tuesday night and
then with scattered convection on Wednesday. The cold front
follows Wednesday night. There are some small timing issues with
the global models as can be expected at this juncture in time.
It briefly gets warm and humid Wednesday in the warm sector, but
quickly back to seasonable levels to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains over the Northeast this evening, then
shifts offshore Friday. A cold front approaches late Friday
night.

VFR this evening, with cigs lowering to MVFR by around midnight
for most terminals. SE winds under 10 kt.

For Friday, improvement to VFR in the aftn, and also a chance
for showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 18Z. However, the
chances are too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Best
chances are for N and W of the city terminals, such as KSWF.
Lower cigs and vsby are possible if a shower or thunderstorm
does move through on Friday. Afternoon S gusts mostly around
25 kt.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of MVFR onset could be off 2-3 hours.

KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of MVFR onset could be off 2-3 hours.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of MVFR onset could be off 2-3 hours.

KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of MVFR onset could be off 2-3 hours.

KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of MVFR onset could be off 2-3 hours.

KISP TAF Comments: Timing of MVFR onset could be off 2-3 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Friday night...VFR during the day, then a chance of showers
and thunderstorms with MVFR at night.
.Saturday-Sunday...An early shower Saturday, then VFR through
the weekend.
.Monday...VFR.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower in showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas remain below small craft levels tonight as high
pressure remains over the waters. This high slides east on
Friday, resulting in an increasing S-SW flow ahead of an
approaching cold front. SCA conditions are expected to develop
on the area waters Fri night, with wind gusts to 25 kt and ocean
seas around 6 ft. There is a chance the SCA conditions develop a
few hours earlier than forecast.

Winds should diminish by Sat morning, although SCA swells on
the ocean will likely linger into Saturday morning. Sub-SCA
conditions are then expected on all waters through the remainder
of the weekend as high pressure builds to the north. Easterly
winds likely strengthen Monday into Monday night and continue
into Tuesday ahead of an approaching warm front. SCA conditions
are likely to develop during this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic impacts expected through Tuesday.
There is potential for rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms
mid week with a frontal system.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM EDT Friday through Friday
     evening for NYZ081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...BC/19
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/19/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW
EQUIPMENT...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion